Vegas Golden Knights v Toronto Maple Leafs prediction and odds
Vegas Golden Knights take on Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL, and here is how our model sees it.
Our reading
There is a clear lean to Vegas Golden Knights at 46%; Toronto Maple Leafs still win this often enough to keep it interesting. A level score is a real possibility here: 25% on our figures. Our model sees the over 6.5 landing 47% of the time.
These probabilities come from our own models (Elo ratings for duels and esports, Poisson goals or normal points distributions for team sports), not from another bookmaker's prices. How we price our odds
Markets and odds
Match result (1X2)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 2.03 | 46% | |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25% | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 3.27 | 29% |
Winner
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 1.56 | 60% | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 2.34 | 40% |
Total (5.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 | 1.65 | 57% | |
| Under 5.5 | 2.15 | 43% |
Total (6.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 | 2.01 | 47% | |
| Under 6.5 | 1.75 | 53% |
Total (7.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | 3.53 | 26% | |
| Under 7.5 | 1.27 | 74% |
Recent form
Vegas Golden Knights
- W2026-10-05 · Vancouver Canucks · 3-2
- L2026-10-03 · Anaheim Ducks · 3-4
- W2026-09-30 · Chicago Blackhawks · 5-2
- L2026-06-15 · Carolina Hurricanes · 0-3
- L2026-06-12 · Carolina Hurricanes · 2-4
Toronto Maple Leafs
- L2026-10-03 · Ottawa Senators · 2-3
- W2026-09-30 · New York Islanders · 2-1
- L2026-09-29 · Montreal Canadiens · 2-3
- L2026-04-15 · Ottawa Senators · 1-3
- L2026-04-13 · Dallas Stars · 5-6
Recent form: 2 wins from 5 for Vegas Golden Knights. Toronto Maple Leafs won 1 of their last 5.
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings, Vegas Golden Knights won 2 and Toronto Maple Leafs won 0.
- 2026-01-24 · Toronto Maple Leafs 3-6 Vegas Golden Knights
- 2026-01-16 · Vegas Golden Knights 6-5 Toronto Maple Leafs
Odds can move right up to 1 minute before the start, and this preview page is withdrawn once the match is over.