Mariano Navone v Pablo Carreno Busta prediction and odds
Our numbers for Mariano Navone v Pablo Carreno Busta (Rolex Shanghai Masters): probabilities, form and the prices on offer.
Our reading
Neither side stands out: Mariano Navone get 55% and Pablo Carreno Busta 45%, so small details like line-ups can tip it. It is a best of 3: the stronger side gets more chances to recover from a bad game, so favourites win series more often than single games. On the total, the main line is 2.5 and we rate the over at 50%.
The figures above are what our rating model expects, built from past results; the odds you see are those probabilities with our margin applied evenly across each market. How we price our odds
Markets and odds
Winner
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariano Navone | 1.71 | 55% | |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | 2.06 | 45% |
Handicap (-1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariano Navone -1.5 | 3.32 | 28% | |
| Pablo Carreno Busta +1.5 | 1.30 | 72% |
Handicap (+1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariano Navone +1.5 | 1.20 | 78% | |
| Pablo Carreno Busta -1.5 | 4.24 | 22% |
Total (2.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.88 | 50% | |
| Under 2.5 | 1.86 | 50% |
Correct score
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 3.32 | 28% | |
| 2-1 | 3.54 | 26% | |
| 1-2 | 4.00 | 23% | |
| 0-2 | 4.24 | 22% |
Recent form
Mariano Navone
- L2026-10-01 · Alex de Minaur · 0-2
- L2026-09-04 · Tomas Martin Etcheverry · 0-3
- W2026-09-02 · Matteo Berrettini · 3-1
- W2026-08-30 · Novak Djokovic · 3-2
- L2026-08-25 · James Duckworth · 0-2
Pablo Carreno Busta
- L2026-10-02 · Daniil Medvedev · 0-2
- W2026-09-29 · Adrian Mannarino · 2-0
- W2026-09-28 · Zhou Yi · 2-0
- L2026-08-30 · Jiri Lehecka · 1-3
- L2026-08-16 · Andrey Rublev · 0-2
Mariano Navone come in with 2 victories in their last 5 outings. Recent form: 2 wins from 5 for Pablo Carreno Busta.
Head to head
No recent meeting between Mariano Navone and Pablo Carreno Busta in our records.
Odds can move right up to 1 minute before the start, and this preview page is withdrawn once the match is over.