Marcos Giron v Sebastian Baez prediction and odds
Marcos Giron take on Sebastian Baez in the Rolex Shanghai Masters, and here is how our model sees it.
Our reading
Sebastian Baez go in as favourites at 59%, but Marcos Giron are far from out of it. Played as a best of 3, which stretches the edge of the better player or team; map and set handicaps (±1.5) and total maps become interesting. Our model sees the over 2.5 landing 49% of the time.
We calculate every price in-house: team or player ratings give the probabilities above, and a margin is then spread proportionally across the outcomes. How we price our odds
Markets and odds
Winner
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Giron | 2.27 | 41% | |
| Sebastian Baez | 1.59 | 59% |
Handicap (-1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Giron -1.5 | 4.81 | 19% | |
| Sebastian Baez +1.5 | 1.16 | 81% |
Handicap (+1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Giron +1.5 | 1.36 | 69% | |
| Sebastian Baez -1.5 | 2.99 | 31% |
Total (2.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.90 | 49% | |
| Under 2.5 | 1.84 | 51% |
Correct score
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | 2.99 | 31% | |
| 1-2 | 3.39 | 28% | |
| 2-1 | 4.30 | 22% | |
| 2-0 | 4.81 | 19% |
Recent form
Marcos Giron
- L2026-09-28 · Jaume Munar · 1-2
- L2026-09-02 · Ignacio Buse · 2-3
- L2026-08-24 · Dhakshineswar Suresh · 0-2
- L2026-08-12 · Henrique Rocha · 0-2
- L2026-08-04 · Hubert Hurkacz · 1-2
Sebastian Baez
- L2026-10-01 · Shang Juncheng · 1-2
- L2026-09-23 · Jenson Brooksby · 0-2
- L2026-08-31 · Brandon Nakashima · 0-3
- W2026-08-26 · Hugo Grenier · 2-0
- L2026-08-16 · Learner Tien · 0-2
Marcos Giron come in with 0 victories in their last 5 outings. Recent form: 1 wins from 5 for Sebastian Baez.
Head to head
The recent record between them reads Marcos Giron 0 – Sebastian Baez 1 across 1 matches.
- 2026-01-16 · Sebastian Baez 2-0 Marcos Giron
Odds can move right up to 1 minute before the start, and this preview page is withdrawn once the match is over.