Carlos Alcaraz v Jaume Munar prediction and odds
Carlos Alcaraz take on Jaume Munar in the Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships, and here is how our model sees it.
Full time: 2-1. This preview stays online only briefly after the final whistle.
Our reading
The ratings lean hard towards Carlos Alcaraz (80%). Short prices like these rarely offer much value on their own, so Jaume Munar backers are betting on an upset. Format: best of 3. Longer series reduce the upset rate, which is why the series price is shorter than the single-game price for the favourite. Goals or points: the 2.5 line, with a 41% chance of going over on our numbers.
These probabilities come from our own models (Elo ratings for duels and esports, Poisson goals or normal points distributions for team sports), not from another bookmaker's prices. How we price our odds
Markets and odds
Winner
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 1.17 | 80% | |
| Jaume Munar | 4.69 | 20% |
Handicap (-1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 | 1.84 | 51% | |
| Jaume Munar +1.5 | 1.90 | 49% |
Total (2.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 2.29 | 41% | |
| Under 2.5 | 1.58 | 59% |
Correct score
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 1.84 | 51% | |
| 2-1 | 3.20 | 29% | |
| 1-2 | 7.98 | 12% | |
| 0-2 | 11.40 | 8% |
Recent form
Carlos Alcaraz
- W2026-10-03 · Matteo Arnaldi · 2-0
- W2026-10-01 · Alex Michelsen · 2-1
- L2026-09-09 · Ben Shelton · 2-3
- W2026-09-06 · Tommy Paul · 3-0
- W2026-09-04 · Wu Yibing · 3-0
Jaume Munar
- W2026-10-04 · Kyrian Jacquet · 2-0
- W2026-10-02 · Jaime Faria · 2-0
- W2026-10-01 · Taylor Fritz · 2-1
- W2026-09-29 · Aleksandar Kovacevic · 2-0
- W2026-09-28 · Marcos Giron · 2-1
Carlos Alcaraz come in with 4 victories in their last 5 outings. Jaume Munar come in with 5 victories in their last 5 outings.
Head to head
No recent meeting between Carlos Alcaraz and Jaume Munar in our records.
Odds can move right up to 1 minute before the start, and this preview page is withdrawn once the match is over.