Alex de Minaur v Hubert Hurkacz prediction and odds
Alex de Minaur take on Hubert Hurkacz in the China Open, and here is how our model sees it.
Our reading
This one is close to a coin flip on our numbers — 54% for Alex de Minaur against 46% for Hubert Hurkacz. It is a best of 3: the stronger side gets more chances to recover from a bad game, so favourites win series more often than single games. Goals or points: the 2.5 line, with a 50% chance of going over on our numbers.
We calculate every price in-house: team or player ratings give the probabilities above, and a margin is then spread proportionally across the outcomes. How we price our odds
Markets and odds
Winner
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | 1.72 | 54% | |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 2.05 | 46% |
Handicap (-1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur -1.5 | 3.33 | 28% | |
| Hubert Hurkacz +1.5 | 1.30 | 72% |
Handicap (+1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur +1.5 | 1.20 | 78% | |
| Hubert Hurkacz -1.5 | 4.22 | 22% |
Total (2.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.88 | 50% | |
| Under 2.5 | 1.86 | 50% |
Correct score
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 3.33 | 28% | |
| 2-1 | 3.54 | 26% | |
| 1-2 | 3.99 | 23% | |
| 0-2 | 4.22 | 22% |
Recent form
Alex de Minaur
- W2026-10-04 · Andrey Rublev · 2-1
- W2026-10-03 · Quentin Halys · 2-1
- W2026-10-01 · Mariano Navone · 2-0
- L2026-09-03 · Botic Van De Zandschulp · 0-3
- W2026-09-02 · Andrea Guerrieri · 3-0
Hubert Hurkacz
- W2026-10-04 · Karen Khachanov · 2-0
- W2026-10-02 · Arthur Gea · 2-1
- W2026-10-01 · Learner Tien · 2-1
- L2026-09-29 · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 0-2
- W2026-09-28 · Denis Shapovalov · 2-1
Alex de Minaur come in with 4 victories in their last 5 outings. Recent form: 4 wins from 5 for Hubert Hurkacz.
Head to head
No recent meeting between Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz in our records.
Odds can move right up to 1 minute before the start, and this preview page is withdrawn once the match is over.