Carlos Alcaraz v Jiri Lehecka prediction and odds
Next up in the Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz against Jiri Lehecka. Below you'll find the win chances our ratings give each side.
Our reading
Carlos Alcaraz go in as favourites at 70%, but Jiri Lehecka are far from out of it. It is a best of 3: the stronger side gets more chances to recover from a bad game, so favourites win series more often than single games. Our model sees the over 2.5 landing 46% of the time.
We calculate every price in-house: team or player ratings give the probabilities above, and a margin is then spread proportionally across the outcomes. How we price our odds
Markets and odds
Winner
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 1.34 | 70% | |
| Jiri Lehecka | 3.11 | 30% |
Handicap (-1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 | 2.31 | 40% | |
| Jiri Lehecka +1.5 | 1.57 | 60% |
Handicap (+1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz +1.5 | 1.08 | 87% | |
| Jiri Lehecka -1.5 | 7.06 | 13% |
Total (2.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 2.02 | 46% | |
| Under 2.5 | 1.74 | 54% |
Correct score
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 2.31 | 40% | |
| 2-1 | 3.17 | 29% | |
| 1-2 | 5.55 | 17% | |
| 0-2 | 7.06 | 13% |
Recent form
Carlos Alcaraz
- W2026-10-05 · Jaume Munar · 2-1
- W2026-10-03 · Matteo Arnaldi · 2-0
- W2026-10-01 · Alex Michelsen · 2-1
- L2026-09-09 · Ben Shelton · 2-3
- W2026-09-06 · Tommy Paul · 3-0
Jiri Lehecka
- W2026-10-05 · Valentin Vacherot · 2-0
- W2026-10-04 · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo · 2-0
- W2026-10-03 · Ugo Humbert · 2-1
- W2026-10-01 · Zizou Bergs · 2-1
- L2026-09-04 · Stefanos Tsitsipas · 1-3
Carlos Alcaraz come in with 4 victories in their last 5 outings. Recent form: 4 wins from 5 for Jiri Lehecka.
Head to head
This is a fresh pairing: we have no recent head-to-head between Carlos Alcaraz and Jiri Lehecka.
Odds can move right up to 1 minute before the start, and this preview page is withdrawn once the match is over.