Novak Djokovic v Alex de Minaur prediction and odds
Next up in the China Open: Novak Djokovic against Alex de Minaur. Below you'll find the win chances our ratings give each side.
Our reading
There is a clear lean to Novak Djokovic at 58%; Alex de Minaur still win this often enough to keep it interesting. Played as a best of 3, which stretches the edge of the better player or team; map and set handicaps (±1.5) and total maps become interesting. Goals or points: the 2.5 line, with a 49% chance of going over on our numbers.
The figures above are what our rating model expects, built from past results; the odds you see are those probabilities with our margin applied evenly across each market. How we price our odds
Markets and odds
Winner
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | 1.61 | 58% | |
| Alex de Minaur | 2.22 | 42% |
Handicap (-1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic -1.5 | 3.05 | 31% | |
| Alex de Minaur +1.5 | 1.35 | 69% |
Handicap (+1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic +1.5 | 1.17 | 80% | |
| Alex de Minaur -1.5 | 4.68 | 20% |
Total (2.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.89 | 49% | |
| Under 2.5 | 1.85 | 51% |
Correct score
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 3.05 | 31% | |
| 2-1 | 3.42 | 27% | |
| 1-2 | 4.23 | 22% | |
| 0-2 | 4.68 | 20% |
Recent form
Novak Djokovic
- W2026-10-05 · Daniil Medvedev · 2-0
- W2026-10-04 · Alexander Zverev · 2-1
- W2026-10-02 · Bu Yunchaokete · 2-1
- W2026-09-30 · Nuno Borges · 2-0
- L2026-08-30 · Mariano Navone · 2-3
Alex de Minaur
- W2026-10-04 · Andrey Rublev · 2-1
- W2026-10-03 · Quentin Halys · 2-1
- W2026-10-01 · Mariano Navone · 2-0
- L2026-09-03 · Botic Van De Zandschulp · 0-3
- W2026-09-02 · Andrea Guerrieri · 3-0
Novak Djokovic come in with 4 victories in their last 5 outings. Alex de Minaur won 4 of their last 5.
Head to head
This is a fresh pairing: we have no recent head-to-head between Novak Djokovic and Alex de Minaur.
Odds can move right up to 1 minute before the start, and this preview page is withdrawn once the match is over.